Tailored coercion Competition and Risk in Maritime Asia

March 2014
Tailored coercion Competition and Risk in Maritime Asia
By Patrick M. Cronin, Dr. Ely Ratner, Elbridge Colby, Zachary M. Hosford
and Alexander Sullivan
Table of Contents
I. Introduction 5
II. Introduction: The Contours of Tailored Coercion 8
in Maritime Asia
III. U.S. and its Allies’ Responses 11
IV. Responding to Tailored Coercion: 21
The Diplomatic, Institutional
and Legal Dimensions
V. Conclusion: The Agenda Ahead 24
http://www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/CNAS_TailoredCoercion_report.pdf

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Parallels of History: "the end of war is nigh"

Monday, November 26, 2012

clip_image002While Syria slaughters its own people and Cairo burns yet again, idealism reveals again, that war is to be left in the dustbins of history.  Similar predictions were made in 1909, just 4 years before the first World War, and in the 1930’s by Neville Chamberlain, on the eve of the Second World War.  In the 90’s, Clinton slashed our military with the idealism that the world would be a safer place.  It ignored the rising attacks by Islamist Terrorists and declarations of war by al-Qaeda, in hopes it would just go away.  It claimed terrorism was a law enforcement problem, and should be tried in court, rather than prosecuted by militaries.

Zero Ponsdorf of This Ain’t Hell points out the latest prediction of the impending future world of peace.  And some blame the realism of Veterans, of the fact that Sovereign Nations maintain standing Armies for self-defense, that wars continue.  Evidently, some believe that if Nations will just give up the means to defend themselves, then dictatorships will stop trying to take over their land and people.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the Communist Central Party of China has selected their new set of leaders, without ANY input from their Chinese subjects and are publishing new passports with maps of claiming the territory of several Pacific Nations, from the Philipines, to India, to Korea, to Japan, and of course Taiwan.

clip_image004Communist China has been using the profits of the lead coated toys it sells to our kids, to buy modern battleships, aircraft carriers, and troop transports.  It has taken over from the Soviets in stealing our technology, for such things as the Stealth Fighter which the Obama Administration decided was unneeded for our own military.  It has doubled its military spending in the last decade, and continues to increase it by double digits.  And now, it is making claims on the islands of the Pacifics in a manner reminiscent of 1930’s Japan.  The one thing that has contained China’s military threat for decades is being erased: its inability to project the power of its 4.5 Million man Military.

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From Strength to Strength: Military Exercises Bolster Sino-Thai Relations

Publication: China Brief Volume: 12 Issue: 12

June 22, 2012 04:56 PM Age: 2 days  By: Ian Storey

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Chinese and Thai Marines During the Recent Exercise

In May, as the tense face off between maritime law enforcement vessels from the Philippines and China at Scarborough Shoal entered its second month, several hundred marines from Thailand and China conducted combined military exercises in Guangdong province. The two events highlight the widening fault line within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) between those members who view Chinese assertiveness as a serious national security concern—which can only be addressed with help from the United States—and member states who do not have a direct stake in the dispute and continue to prioritize strengthening economic, political and security ties with Beijing. The Philippines falls on one side of the divide, Thailand on the other. As Sino-Philippine relations deteriorate, Sino-Thai relations move from strength to strength.

Developing Sino-Thai Relations

Thailand and China developed a close relationship in the late 1970s when threat perceptions converged in the wake of Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia in 1978. During Hanoi’s decade-long occupation, Bangkok and Beijing forged a de facto strategic alliance. China exerted military pressure on Vietnam when the Vietnamese military violated Thai sovereignty and Thailand facilitated the delivery of Chinese weaponry to anti-Vietnamese Khmer Rouge guerrillas along the Thai-Cambodian border. When Vietnam withdrew its forces from Cambodia in the late 1980s, the focus of Sino-Thai cooperation shifted quickly and seamlessly to trade and investment, and Thailand quickly established itself as China’s most important economic partner in mainland Southeast Asia.

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American Warships Mass Off China

US Navy 040728-N-7631T-067 Out-going Commander...

US Navy 040728-N-7631T-067 Out-going Commander, Naval Air Force, U.S. Atlantic Fleet, Rear Adm. James M. Zortman, center, and incoming Rear Adm. H. Denby Starling, II, salute Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command, Adm. William J (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

June 10, 2012: The U.S. announced that it will have 60 percent of its 270 warships in the Pacific by the end of the decade. Actually, this is just a continuation of a process that began when the Cold War ended in 1991. But these changes move slowly. Largely this is the result of political problems that arise when you try to transfer the home ports (where the ships are when not at sea and where the families of the crews live, and spend their money) from one coast to another. The politicians representing states on the east coast raise a major stink when the navy tries to move the home ports. It’s taken the navy a decade to muster the political clout to make the changes happen. Meanwhile, more and more ships based in east coast ports were serving temporarily in the Pacific or Middle East. Now the big shift has been taking place officially. There have been other indicators that this was happening.

For example, six years ago the U.S. Navy eliminated the Atlantic Fleet, after a century of existence. First established in 1906, the Atlantic Fleet was the first, world class, high seas, naval force from the Americas. At the time, there was fear that Germany’s ambitious warship building program might someday endanger the United States. The Atlantic Fleet did go to war with the Germans in 1917, and again in 1941.

After 1945, the Atlantic Fleet remained a mighty force, in preparation for a potential battle with the growing naval power of the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, their fleet wasted away within a decade. So the American Atlantic Fleet no longer had a major opponent. Meanwhile, China, North Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran provided plenty of work for the Pacific Fleet (which normally supplied ships for Middle East and South Asian emergencies.)

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‘Indian Army preparing for limited conflict with China’

China India eastern border depicting disputed ...

Image via Wikipedia

Thursday, February 09, 2012 Press Trust Of India

Noting that India is increasingly getting concerned about China‘s posture on its border, a top US intelligence official on Wednesday said that the Indian Army is strengthening itself for a “limited conflict” with China.
“Despite public statements intended to downplay tensions between India and China, we judge that India is increasingly concerned about China’s posture along their disputed border and Beijing’s perceived aggressive posture in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in his prepared testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

“The Indian Army believes a major Sino-Indian conflict is not imminent, but the Indian military is strengthening its forces in preparation to fight a limited conflict along the disputed border, and is working to balance Chinese power projection in the Indian Ocean,” he said.

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Has China’s most famous police official defected to the United States?

February 9, 2012 by Ian Allen

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By IAN ALLEN | intelNews.org |
There are rumors that China’s most famous law enforcement official may have tried to defect to the United States, after Chinese police surrounded a US consulate in Southwest China. Three years ago, Wang Lijun, the chief of police in Chongqing, a city of nearly 30 million inhabitants, launched an extensive campaign aimed at dismantling southwestern China’s criminal networks. Among his targets were the notorious Triad gangs, as well as China’s extensive drugs, human, and consumer goods smuggling networks. Since that time, he has conducted nearly 1,100 arrests, helped convict several organized syndicate bosses to death, and overseen an anti-corruption program that led to the removal or arrest of several Chongqing police officials. Media sources in China report that Wang, who has become a popular icon of anti-corruption campaigners in China, has been targeted in numerous knife and sniper attacks, one of which left him in a coma for over a week.

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Analysis: India’s military reformation may be too little too late

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REUTERS/B Mathur

Buglers from the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force arrive to pay their respects at the Mahatma Gandhi memorial on Gandhi’s death anniversary at Rajghat in New Delhi January 30, 2012

By Frank Jack Daniel

NEW DELHI — India’s 1.3 million-strong armed forces, hobbled by outdated equipment and slow decision-making, are undergoing an overhaul as defence priorities shift to China from traditional rival Pakistan.

And like a refit of the imposing but dilapidated defense ministry on Delhi’s grand South Block, it’s a plodding process.

Defense chiefs are hurrying to modernize ageing weaponry as China reinforces a 3,500-km shared but disputed border through the Himalayas.

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